Prediction markets raise concerns over tribal sovereignty, child safety and gaming revenue in Oklahoma

(OKLAHOMA) Unregulated prediction market platforms are raising concerns among Oklahoma tribal leaders and gaming officials, who warn the industry could threaten tribal sovereignty, increase underage gambling and undercut billions in regulated gaming revenue.

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi, Coinbase, and Polymarket allow users to bet on future events, including elections and sports outcomes, often operating outside traditional gambling regulations, including age restrictions that limit betting to adults.

At the United Indian Nations of Oklahoma (UINO) meeting in March, officials said that while sports betting is not legal in Oklahoma, that hasn’t stopped prediction market sites from expanding their reach to both adults and children.

“They're in Oklahoma now,” said Indian Gaming Association (IGA) Executive Director Jason Giles. “They were one of the first states they targeted because when they really got online, Oklahoma City Thunder were playing for that NBA championship last year. And many of you saw the signs on I-40 up on the boards. They had no compunction of advertising, ‘Come on, bet on the Thunder.’ And then this football season, taking big bets from Oklahoma.”

Giles and other leaders also expressed concerns over the ability of both states and tribes to regulate the sites. 

“They don't care about state sovereignty,” said Giles. “They sure as heck don't care about tribal sovereignty. It's scandal after scandal, insider trading. There's bets up there that people already know the answer to and people are cashing in. And then on top of that, these prediction markets sometimes won't even pay out because they realize that they messed up, which just shows you they're making up the rules as they go along with no threat whatsoever of regulation from the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission).” 

Leaders also raised concerns about access by minors. 

Iowa Tribe of Oklahoma Chairman Jacob Keyes said high school students are already placing bets on their phones.

“My son is 17 years old,” Keyes said. “He goes to Norman North. All of his friends talk about placing bets mobilely. They're already doing it.”

“Thank God a lot of the schools took their cell phones away. Because our kids are at school, after school, on the bus on the way home, placing bets on that Thunder game last night. And there's not a whole lot that can be done about it in terms of regulation.”

Regulating these entities may get even harder for states and tribes in the future. 

In January, the CFTC withdrew a rule proposed in 2024 that would have banned bets on sports and politics through prediction markets.

In April, the CFTC announced it was suing Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over their efforts to regulate prediction markets. The CFTC maintains it has the authority to regulate these markets rather than the states. 

Concerns over the CFTC’s handling of prediction markets were also voiced during the Reservation Economic Summit (RES) held in Las Vegas at the end of March. 

IGA Chairman David Z. Bean spoke during the session: “Prediction Markets: Building the Coalition for the Fight Ahead.” 

“Through their inaction, the message being sent is that our laws, our operations, and our sovereignty do not matter,” said Bean. “That is something we cannot and will not accept.”

The ability to regulate what types of gambling activities are allowed in a state or tribe’s jurisdiction isn’t just about sovereignty, it’s also about revenue. 

In 2025, the National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC) released data stating that tribal gaming revenue hit $43.9 billion in 2024. 

“Sports contracts undermine the exclusivity of gaming compacts negotiated between the tribes and states,” said IGA Secretary Christie Modlin. “This affects the revenue sharing agreements in the compacts, which are crucial to funding state tribal services. Sports contracts will intercept the necessary gaming revenue to the states and tribes, and threaten the police power of states.”

Keyes told attendees at the UINO meeting that tribes cannot afford to be the last to the table, emphasizing the need to legalize sports betting.

And he shared his disappointment last week when the Oklahoma Senate decided not to pass HB 1047, which would have legalized sports betting in the state.

“It was not about forcing anyone to gamble,” said Keyes. “It was about giving Oklahoma a legal, regulated framework for sports betting instead of continuing to leave the door open for illegal and unregulated prediction markets that are already operating here under the cover of federal financial exchanges. A vote against a legal, regulated system is a vote to let those bad actors keep expanding in Oklahoma.”

Keyes said he was equally disappointed in those who worked against the bill after sitting out of the process for nearly two years.

“Many of us spent countless hours in meetings, negotiations, debate, and legal review trying to build language that tribes across Oklahoma could live with,” Keyes said. “This was not a rushed effort. This was years of serious work, serious compromise, and serious investment. No one got everything they wanted, and this was never a perfect bill. I had concerns with parts of it myself. But many of us stayed at the table because we understood the bigger picture and the growing threat in front of us.”

Crosswinds News will continue to follow this story and the impact of prediction markets on tribal gaming, safety and sovereignty.